2008 is one of the world economy and China's economy is not an extraordinary one. The United States sub-prime crisis triggered the global financial crisis and the evolution of the global economic crisis. China has experienced a series of ups and downs of sorrow and喜怒- spring snowstorm and Sichuan earthquake, the Beijing Olympic Games, Sanlu case, the export decline, the growth slowdown in business failures, industrial unemployment, and so on. At the Party Central Committee, under the leadership of the State Council, China to maintain peace and stability, persist in opening to the outside world, pay attention to people-oriented, caring people's livelihood, overcoming various difficulties ahead, stood the severe test of this. The world economy in 2009 continued to decline, China's economic situation even more severe, face greater challenges.
First, the preamble
"Chinese Economic Analysis 2008-2009 Outlook Report" (CEAOR2009) to a global vision and structure analysis of a comprehensive, truthful, objective, logical to look at in 2008 the world economy and China's economy to "efficiency, harmony, sustained" a good test of China's economic policies bad, in order to "theoretical logic" and "the practice of logic" test the authenticity of Chinese economic events happen and to put forward in 2009 and the future of China's economic development theory of logic and development strategies. The theme of this year's report is "the process of industrialization in China and turning the end of history." The report is divided into 13 parts: First, the preamble; II, the United States sub-loan crisis in the evolution of the global economic crisis; three, China's rapid economic growth suffered serious setbacks; four, beginning in China's economic structure has improved; Friday, China's economic expansion shift economic contraction; VI highlights the socio-economic cycle of the employment problem; seven, the China International Economic and serious disruption to the cycle; eight, the Chinese cycle of resources and the environment has improved; nine, in 2008 the overall evaluation of China's economic policy; ten, in 2009 China's social and economic basic prediction ; eleven, in 2008 the basic objective of macroeconomic policy in China; twelve, in 2008 China's social and economic policy mix; 13, China's industrialization process and turning the end of history; fourteen, concluding remarks.
Analysis showed that in 2008 China's economic growth rate of 13 percent from last year's plummet to 9 percent are industrial and economic structures, economic austerity policy, the world economic crisis the role of three common results. At present, the Chinese economy from the economic growth, prices for the characteristics of "economic expansion" U-turn towards the growth decline in prices is characterized by "economic austerity."
At present, the world economy has evolved from the financial crisis affecting the real economy of the economic crisis in 2008 lagged behind the world economic crisis will effect the world economy in 2009 fell deeper, more bleak economic prospects. The top-down economic crisis almost destroyed the world's major economies of the financial system and the production system, this round of world economic fluctuations is not a V-type fluctuations, but U-volatility, and may even be W fluctuations, the world economy in 2009 little possibility of recovery.
Analysis showed that in 2008 China to expand domestic demand, the service industry increased to improve the economic structure is temporary, with the infrastructure and industrial investment increased substantially the proportion of the industrial economy will re-rise. Therefore, the industrial economic structure, problems remain. China's economy in 2009 may face structural defects, the market shrinking, social unemployment triple attack, if the world economy to decline further to 0.5% in 2009 China's economic growth rate may drop to 5% or less, the economic situation even more severe by the economic slowdown society resulting from increased unemployment, socio-economic development will enable China to become more complex, more difficult.
"Industrial economy" and "austerity" in 2009 are the two major characteristics of China's economy, industrial economy is the basic structure is the basic trend of economic contraction. Analysis showed that in 2009 China's macro-economic policy objective is "to overcome the constraints, optimize the structure, promoting growth, increasing employment," exert population advantage and market advantage, the use of expansionary fiscal policy and monetary policies, accelerate the industrial economy exogeneity endogenous inward Service the history of economic change in the structure of uncertainty achieve growth, to overcome the economic crunch at the same time, increase employment, reduce resource consumption, improve the ecological environment and embark on a new efficient, harmonious and sustainable development.
Practice shows that the new course of development of the sixties China is the process of industrialization. After industrialization, the Chinese set up a preliminary industrialized economies, the state of rapid economic growth, national income increased, people's living standard continues to improve, to become a world power. Nevertheless, the industry's economic structure has also decided to defect to the industrial economy of China's growth as the main body structure is also inevitable overproduction, the international dependence on cyclical fluctuations, resource shortages, environmental degradation, the structure of these negative characteristics, the industrial economic growth comes from investment, expansion in exports, when the investment constraints, the decline in exports, the industry will inevitably slow down economic growth, China's economic development in 2008 has fully proved this point. Logic shows that there is the efficiency of the industrial economy, but there is no harmony, sustained, in 2009 China's industrialization process is facing the end of history and a turning point.
Second, the United States sub-loan crisis in the evolution of the global economic crisis
The world economy and China's economic development has a certain cyclical. We published in 2007 "Global 100 international trade and investment country risk index," the report warned long ago, "the world economy in 2008 to enter the eight-year economic cycle bottom", the world economy such as economic cycle about eight years and to. From the United States sub-loan crisis "butterfly effect" top-down triggered by the financial turmoil has affected the real economy has turned into the economic crisis sweeping the globe, leading to severe recession in the global economy. The world economic crisis once again highlighted the strength of the logic of the economic cycle - 2001 is the world's economic downturn, the world economy in 2008 to re-enter the eight-year economic cycle bottom (see Figure 1).
Figure 1 China's economy with the world economy with this cool hot
The United States sub-loan crisis of the nature of the bubble economy are the inevitable result of deregulation of the U.S. government, business investment caused by the blind. In 2002 the United States begin a new round of economic recovery, the rising economic activity, with economic growth, increasing income, people's confidence in making investments into speculative mentality. At the same time, the Bush administration in order to reduce the war-affected, to stimulate economic development and the consolidation of political status, in the agricultural, industrial and service industries, the decline of the general circumstances, relaxed government regulation, laissez-faire financial institution speculation.
With the growing financial speculation, a large number of no jobs and no money and no ability to repay those who have been involved in real estate, as represented in financial speculation, they do not have the actual ability to pay in the circumstances to rely on rising housing price of access to credit and income. Banks and other financial institutions in order to get higher pay, rapid agitation of the bubble economy, wanton lending to rely on rising house prices gains at the same time, through the issuance of subordinated bonds a way to put risk transfer, including China, other investors. In this process, the United States financial institutions to the expected return and market price out loans, while at the same time unable to recover the funds, when financial institutions can continue lending or transfer of risk, this game can be. However, when financial institutions can not afford to continue lending, the loans from financial institutions expenditure and income gap between the funds lead to strand breaks, can not support customers buy bubble pushed up housing prices and income expectations, expected to rely on the proceeds to pay the loan has become fruitless and price bubbles and financial bubble has burst and the sub-prime crisis broke out (see Figure 2).
December 2007, the U.S. economy began to decline. The United States in 2008 a large number of Lehman Brothers and other financial institutions closed down, affecting the real economy, GM, Ford, Chrysler Motor Corporation the three crises. This globalization of the financial crisis through the chain, market chain, production chain transfer to Europe, Asia and throughout the world, the evolution of the economic crisis spread to the rest of the world. Analysis showed that the current economic crisis is the financial system are blood diseases, rather than the production system of dyspepsia, the destruction of the financial system has affected the entire world economy is not easy to digest inventory, the repair required a very long process.
Figure 2 The United States sub-loan crisis of the economic bubble model
At present, the world economic crisis is far from over, globalization of Chinese economy will certainly be affected, a synchronous decline in Chinese economic data in 2008 also has fully proved this point, one single flower show are innocent but a fantasy. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2009 on 28 years one day publish the latest economic report, in 2008 world economic growth in 2007 from 5.2% to 3.4%, 35.7% growth rate. Synchronous decline of China's economy, economic growth rate by 2007 from 13% to 9%, 30.7% growth rate. If the world economy in 2009 as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a further decline to 0.5%, China's economic growth may drop to below 5%, in 2009 China's economic situation even more severe.
Three, China's rapid economic train suddenly slow down
In the economic globalization, China's economy is already part of the world economy, economic development by restricting the world economy, heavy dependence on external resources and international markets, especially the industrial economy.
1, the two major resistance led to China's economic train deceleration
Data show that in 2008 China's rapid economic growth has slowed. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, "China's economic boom prediction," in January 2009 issue of the data, the full year 2008 gross domestic product (GDP) 300670 billion, an increase of 9% over the previous year. Of these, 10.6 percent growth in the first quarter, second quarter growth of 10.1 percent, 9.0 percent growth in the third quarter, fourth quarter growth of 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2007 compared to 13 percent economic growth rate has been half (see Figure 3) China's rapid economic train suddenly slow down.
Chinese industry as the mainstay of the economic train by the investment growth and the dual constraints of market demand, in 2008 China's macro-economic judgment errors, in the global economic crisis has begun to show the circumstances have taken restrictive macroeconomic policy, money supply (M1) by speed in January from 20.7 percent in November dropped to 6.8%, 67.1% reduction, drastic monetary policy so that enterprises have sufficient funds and difficulties in their operations. China's industrial economy is export-oriented economy, the year 2008 the total import and export goods from 2.5616 trillion U.S. dollars, equivalent to 17.4188 trillion yuan RMB, equivalent to China's economic aggregate GDP300670 billion 57.9%, dependence on foreign trade is relatively high. Among them, 1.4285 trillion U.S. dollars, exports of goods, which is equivalent to 9.7138 trillion yuan. If China's exports in 2008 reached 20.4 percent growth in 2007 the level of Chinese exports can reach 11.2507 trillion yuan, resulting in decline in Chinese export growth to reduce GDP15369 billion.
Figure 3 in 2008 China's economic growth plummeted
Such as the cyclical nature of some and to the global economic crisis to make a sharp shrinkage of market demand, exports dropped significantly reduce exports, production and management difficulties, the macroeconomic slowdown. After discounting the effect of economic growth in GDP from 36.3 percent conversion factor, in 2008 China's actual growth rate of about 5.7 percent, the level of growth by high-speed down to medium-speed growth. The fourth quarter of 2008 real economic growth has fallen to 4.3% level, enter the range of slow growth.
2,2008, China's real GDP 191527 billion
2008 Chinese GDP total 30.067 trillion yuan, of which the whole society 17.2291 trillion yuan of investment in fixed assets investment in fixed assets, total GDP accounted for 57.3% of the 30.067 trillion yuan, more than 55.6 percent of 2007 levels. Data show that China's rapid economic growth are not primarily from growth in consumption, but the conversion from the GDP - GDP is converted to national income over the previous year of national income converted to savings → → → savings investment is converted to the conversion of investment for this year's GDP, 2008 years China's economic growth has 36.3 percent in GDP from this conversion.
Economic growth are really the purpose of consumption, consumption, GDP only achieve real economic growth. The world's total investment accounted for 21% of average GDP for the reference, the Chinese investment growth investment growth exceeded the world average of 36.3 percentage points. In other words, in 2008 the total GDP in China is 36.3 percent conversion through the formation of GDP. After discounting the effect of the formation of excessive investment in the conversion of GDP (109143 million) in 2008 China's actual GDP is around 19.1527 trillion yuan.
3, China is still a poor developing countries
2008 Chinese total GDP for the 30.067 trillion yuan, 1.3 billion Chinese population in accordance with the initial estimated China's per capita GDP 23128 yuan, according to one U.S. dollar is currently 6.8 yuan exchange rate terms, China's per capita GDP of about 3041 U.S. dollars (with the Thai equivalent), which is equivalent to the world average of 41% ( "International Statistical Yearbook 2008" data, in 2006 the global per capita GDP7439 dollars), equivalent to the United States GDP44970 dollars per capita 6.7 percent, today China is still a poor developing countries.
Analysis shows that, despite China's economic growth rate far exceeds the level of world economic growth, but China's per capita GDP gap with the world and not narrowed. Among them, the devaluation of the Renminbi in China's long-term implementation of policies, in accordance with the current dollar exchange rate is far below the GDP according to purchasing power parity GDP, according to China's per capita GDP in U.S. dollar terms it difficult to raise the level, which is hindering China's social and economic development level and improve the people's main reason for the level of benefits.
4, the Government has control of three fast growth of the two carriage one slow
China's economy in 2008 is still under government-led operation. In general, government control of the three carriage two fast one slow.
First of all, the government-controlled investment in fixed assets continued to grow at high speed. 2008 total fixed asset investment of 17.2291 trillion yuan, up 25.5 percent, GDP growth rates are 2.8 times the growth of investment has become China's economic growth. Secondly, the extraordinary growth in Chinese consumption. 2008 retail sales of consumer goods nationwide 10.8488 trillion yuan, up 21.6% over the previous year to speed up the growth rate 4.8 percentage points, are the economic growth rate of 2.4 times, even taking into account the 5.9% price rises, growth in retail sales of social commodities is still very quick. Third, because the world financial crisis, China's export growth in 2008 declined significantly, and the annual export growth of only 17.2 percent, the fourth quarter fell to 4.3%, export-led economic growth has been greatly reduced (see Figure 4).
Figure 4 2008 3 carriage driving Chinese economic growth
Comparatively speaking, in terms of investment, consumption, exports three horse-driven economic growth, investment in economic growth the most, 9% of the Chinese economic growth has come from to invest 5.2 percentage points, 3.2 percentage points from consumption, only 0.6 percentage points from exports, China's economic growth investment characteristics significantly, when the decline in investment growth, the Chinese economic growth is bound to slow down. Facts have proved that the Chinese early in 2008 to adopt austerity policies to reduce investment, economic growth will inevitably slow down.
5,2008 in the quality of China's economic growth continued to decline
People know that the purpose of economic growth are consumption, consumption accounts for the proportion of total GDP to measure the quality of economic growth are key indicators. Chinese society in 2008 full-year retail sales of consumer goods 10.8488 trillion yuan, accounting for 36% of the total GDP300670 than 2007 retail sales of consumer goods accounted for the total GDP 36.1% also fell by 0.1 percentage points. Therefore, China's economic growth in 2008 while consumption fell, the quality of economic growth at a further decline.
Is doubtful that the Chinese in 2008 full year total retail sales of social consumer goods, 10.8488 trillion yuan, up 21.6 percent over the same period the year Chinese urban residents per capita disposable income growth of only 14.5 percent over the previous year, after deducting price factors, the actual growth of 8.4 % full-year 2008 revenue growth to lag behind residents of social consumer goods retail sales growth of 13.2 percentage points, year-end balance of savings deposits of residents increased more than on the end of 4535.3 billion yuan, meaning that a considerable portion of income into the bank's savings, not consumption, the stock market over the same period the proceeds loss, tenants do not have extra sources of income. According to the National Bureau of Statistics in 2007 the number of Chinese urban population 593,790,000, 727,500,000 rural population base and the 0.5 percent average annual population growth rate, in 2008 Chinese urban population 593,790,000 × (100.5%) = 59676 ten thousand, the rural population 727,500,000 × (100.5%) = 731137 ten thousand. According to the National Bureau of Statistics data, in 2008 the annual Chinese urban residents per capita disposable income of 15,781 yuan, the total urban income = 596760000 × capita disposable income of 15,781 yuan = 9.4175 trillion yuan, the total income of rural residents = 731730000 × rural residents per capita net income 4761 yuan = 3483700000000, both the total 12.9012 trillion yuan, 4.5353 trillion yuan deducted from a net increase of savings, the total income of urban and rural residents only 8.3659 trillion yuan, even if domestic residents of all disposable income to spend a full year total retail sales of social consumer goods they fail to reach 10.8488 trillion yuan, 2.4829 trillion yuan existence can not explain the gap.
Fourth, the recent Chinese economic structure to improve
Difficult because of export growth in 2008, China's economic policy towards export-oriented from the beginning of expanding domestic demand, exports have declined to some extent on the rate of economic growth to reduce industrial and economic proportion of service industry growth and accounted for more than the growth rate of the industrial economy, China's economic structure seems to start to the "good growth" changes. 2008 Chinese annual GDP of 30.067 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.0%. 3.4 trillion yuan added value of the first stage of labor, an increase of 5.5%; secondary industry 14.6183 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.3%; tertiary industry added value of 12.0487 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.5 percent, the industrial slowdown in economic growth, economic growth accelerated Services, beginning its economic structure has improved. However, the first stage of labor because of the added value of the gross domestic product accounted for 11.3% over the previous year increased by 0.2 percentage points; secondary industry accounted for 48.6 percent, up 0.1 percentage points; tertiary industry accounted for 40.1 %, but fell by 0.3 percentage points (see Figure 5), in 2008 China's economic structure tend to change
Figure 5 China's industrial economic structure has been no fundamental change
Good, the actual continued to deteriorate. Therefore, China's economic structural improvement is temporary, and China's industrialization policy has not changed, China's industrial economy as the mainstay of the economic structure has not fundamentally changed, which means that the structure of Chinese industrial economy ills - the strain on the resources, environmental degradation, market surplus, exclusion issues such as employment will continue.
Friday, China's economic expansion to economic austerity
At present, Chinese officials and scholars from the society in general there is a worry - in 2009 China's economic emergence of "deflation." People know, "currency" means currency. Data show that over the past three decades China's money supply growth rate has been higher than the rate of economic growth, has no fear of "deflation", today people are not worried about the money supply to reduce the "deflation", but "the economic crunch . "
Top-down in 2008 the world's financial turmoil has affected the real economy, the evolution of the global economic crisis, economic downturn, the market shrinking, demand reduction in prices, through the market chain, industrial chain and financial chain directly affects the Chinese economy. China's economy in 2008 the four-quarter economic growth rate of 10.6%, respectively, 10.1%, 9%, 6.8% in March, June, September, December Price Change 8.5%, respectively, 7.1%, 4.6%, 1.2% , showing a downward trend, the Chinese economy from economic growth, prices of "economic expansion" U-turn down, turn to the economic downturn and lower prices "economic crunch" (see Figure 6).
Figure 6 China's economic expansion in 2008 shifted the economic crunch
Chinese economy by the "economic expansion" to "economic crunch" is a systemic process. Analysis showed that the global economic crisis led to a surplus of the global market, which is the global decline in production, the root cause of falling prices, and China. At the same time, the Chinese government has adopted tight monetary policy at tightening production, it is also a considerable degree on a reduction of production and consumption demand, coupled with reduced exports, the market appears to overproduction, declining demand asymmetric changes in price levels are down an inevitable outcome.
VI highlights the socio-economic cycle of the employment problem
World economic crisis in 2008 through the industry chain, market chain, financial chain transfer to China, leading to declining domestic production, reduced exports, operational difficulties, business failures, rising unemployment.
1, short-term society highlights the problem of employment
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, "2008 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin", the end of 2008 the National 774,800,000 people employed, than on the end of the year increased 4.9 million people. One of urban employment personnel 302,100,000 people, a net increase of 8,600,000 people, 11.13 million new people. The end of registered urban unemployment rate was 4.2 percent higher than the previous year increased by 0.2 percentage points. According to "China Statistical Yearbook 2007" data ,2002-2007, China's registered urban unemployed population are separately 7700000, 8000000, 8270000, 8390000, 8470000, the registered urban unemployment rate were 4%, 4.3%, 4.2% 4.2%, 4.1%, the unemployment rate rose from 4% to 4.3%, unemployment increased by 300,000. China's economy in 2008 a marked decline, the number of unemployed, at least at the level of millions more,
While the unemployment rate only increased by 0.2%, it is difficult to explain. It is worth noting that the country more than 100 million farmers from the agricultural sector has in fact transferred to the industrial areas, not included in statistical series. According to Social Security data, including the Chinese migrant workers including the unemployed population will reach tens of millions of Chinese society highlights the problem of employment, the enormous pressure.
2, social gap between rich and poor continues to expand
Chinese examination in 2008 the size of the gap between rich and poor Gini coefficient in 1998 from 40.3 to 46.9 (Gini coefficient, 0 the most fair, most unfair hundred), the United States has far exceeded the Gini coefficient of the indicator level of 40.8. One of China's highest-paid 20% of the population total income and consumption accounted for more than 51.9 percent, 45.8 percent more than the United States level (see Figure 7).
Figure 7 different income difference between China and the United States a combination of contrast
Facts show that China's implementation of "industrialization", "market oriented" policy so that the distribution of the widening gap between society, the industrial economy, price suppression, the tax is too high, lack of education and many other factors have led to Chinese society can hardly fair.
3, falling living standards of urban and rural residents
According to the National Bureau of Statistics data, in 2008 the annual Chinese urban residents per capita disposable income of 15,781 yuan, up 14.5 percent, after deducting price factors, the actual growth of 8.4%. Per capita net income of rural residents 4761 yuan, up 15.0 percent, after deducting price factors, the actual growth of 8.0%. Analysis showed that regardless of Chinese urban residents are rural residents or the actual income levels are lagging behind the economic growth of 9% of the level of people's living standards declined. If prices increase in expenditure brought about by factors that more residents fall in real incomes. Factors apart from prices, unreasonable distribution system and high taxes is also an important reason for this phenomenon.
4, social and livelihood problems receive more attention
2008 Chinese natural disasters are frequent year, spring snowstorm and Sichuan earthquake. At the Party Central Committee and State Council, under the leadership of the rapid mobilization of a comprehensive disaster relief, has made great achievements. At the same time, in 2008 more Chinese social policy areas of concern for people's livelihood, health care reform, social security reform process in the speeding up.
Seven, the China International Economic and serious disruption to the flow cycle
2008 Chinese total imports and exports 2.5616 trillion U.S. dollars, an increase of 17.8%, 23.5% over the previous year's growth rate dropped 5.7 percentage points. Among them, the export of 1.4285 trillion U.S. dollars, an increase of 17.2%, 25.7% over the previous year's growth rate dropped 8.5 percentage points; 1.1331 trillion U.S. dollars of imports, an increase of 18.5%, 20.8% over the previous year's growth rate dropped 2.3 percentage points. Import and export balance, a trade surplus of 295.5 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 32.8 billion U.S. dollars last year. Facts show that China's industrial economy as the mainstay of an export-oriented economic structure is heavily dependent on external resources and international markets, when there is any problem with the world market, export-oriented economic growth is bound to decline. The fourth quarter of 2008, Chinese imports fell 8.8 percent, exports grew by only 4.3 percent year-on-year, the international economic cycle has suffered serious setbacks.
Analysis showed that the China International Economic and have inside and outside the circle of serious disruption to the dual factors. On the one hand, the economic crisis led to the global economic downturn, demand and reduce imports. On the other hand, economic growth and per capita income levels increase, a rapid increase in Chinese labor costs, resources and environmental costs of increasing the appreciation of the renminbi to make the production cost advantage of Chinese products gradual loss of international competitiveness of export products continue to decline, while domestic encourage exports exchange rate policy, the export tax rebate policy is exhausted, it is difficult to overcome the shrinking market and less competitive momentum of the decline in export growth slows down or even decline became inevitable logic, the end of 2008 China's exports a rare long-term negative growth.
By the end of 2008, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 1.964 trillion U.S. dollars, up 27.3 percent, abundant foreign exchange reserve increased anti-Chinese international financial crisis. At the same time, because of China's foreign exchange reserves of around 70% of dollar reserves are facing the continuous depreciation of dollar and the renminbi devaluation of the dual internal erosion, declining real value, substantial foreign exchange reserves led to a large number of Chinese yuan to enter the economic cycle replacement, aggravated domestic inflation pressure.
Chinese in 2008 the amount of foreign capital actually utilized 92.395 billion U.S. dollars, up 23.6 percent. Substantial foreign investment continues to shift to China to a certain extent because of the financial crisis on Europe and the United States to reduce the investment opportunities in an attempt to invest in China in order to obtain higher returns. It is worth noting that the world economic crisis facing much foreign capital pressures, a number of foreign-funded enterprises have begun to withdraw from the Chinese market, in 2009 China's international direct investment flows to face variables. At the same time, Chinese enterprises in foreign investment was badly hit, the financial crisis in the collapse of Lehman Brothers collapse, involving lot of Chinese financial institutions, widespread damage.
Eight, the Chinese cycle of resources and the environment to ease conflicts
According to our release of "300 Chinese cities report green GDP index" (CGGDP2008), to measure the efficiency of resources and the environment in 2007 cities in 273 Chinese green index 0.1052 average, China's GDP is black instead of green. This calculation, in 2008 the name of Chinese GDP300670 billion, the total amount of green GDP is about 30.067 trillion yuan × 0.1052 = 31630 billion. This means that only in accordance with the domestic advanced standard, China's economic growth during the 89% waste of resources, waste of resources of 73% over the previous year increased by 16 percentage points. In other words, if the efficiency of China's resources and environment to Beijing to improve the level of Chinese resources and environment can improve the efficiency of 89%. Analysis showed that Chinese economic growth in resource efficiency are the reasons for the decline of industrial economic structure and extensive growth of the inevitable outcome of policies.
With China's economic growth in 2008 slowed down, production reduced resource requirements for the sharp decline in electricity, coal and other resources was a shortage of temporary surplus of products, the National Resources nervous situation was eased temporarily. According to National Bureau of Statistics, in 2008 China's total energy consumption throughout the year 2.85 billion tons of standard coal, up 4.0 percent. Coal consumption of 2.74 billion tons, an increase of 3.0 percent; crude oil consumption of 360 million tons, an increase of 5.1 percent; natural gas consumption of 80.7 billion cubic meters, an increase of 10.1%; the power consumption of 3.4502 trillion kilowatts hour, an increase of 5.6 percent, the National million domestic GDP energy consumption fell 4.59 percent. However, China's water shortage problem is still prominent, and the national shortage of 40 billion cubic meters of water resources. At the same time, as China's economic growth in 2008 slowed down 1 / 3, the National Pollution emissions declined. However, China's industrial economic structure, there is no fundamental change in the mode of economic growth there has been no fundamental change in the strain on the resources, environmental degradation trends have continued. Seven National River Water Quality Monitoring of 409 sections, Ⅰ ~ Ⅲ water quality section accounted for 55.0%, higher than the previous year 5.1 percentage points; poor water quality section Ⅴ proportion accounted for 20.8% over the previous year fell by 2.8 percentage points. Seven major river systems on the overall water quality continued to improve, some river basin pollution is still serious. Coastal waters at 301 water quality monitoring points to one country, second-class water quality standards of monitoring points accounted for 70.4 percent, over the previous year increased by 7.6 percentage points; the three types of water accounted for 11.3 percent, down 0.5 percentage points; four , inferior to the four categories of water accounted for 18.3 percent, down 7.0 percentage points. National does not meet the clean waters of the sea water quality standard of the sea area of 137,000 square km, less than the previous year 08,000 square kilometers, of which seriously polluted sea area of 2.5 million square kilometers. Serious pollution of the Bohai sea area of 03,000 square kilometers. Monitoring at 519 cities, 399 urban air quality to achieve more than two (including 2) standard, accounting for the number of monitoring of urban 76.9%; 113 has three cities, accounting for 21.8%; has seven cities劣3, accounting for 1.3%.
Nine, in 2008 the overall evaluation of China's economic policy
In 2008 to maintain peace and stability in China, adhering to the outside world, in the fight against domestic major natural disasters, to resist the outside world economic crisis in the process of socio-economic development has made considerable progress. Beijing Technology and Business University School of Economics Research Center of the world economy (WERCCN) Professor Kevin quarter in the "world's 100 international trade and investment country risk index" (ITIRI2008), from a political risk, economic risk, policy risk and payment of four aspects of risk analysis 100 countries around the world of international trade and investment risk profile, China's comprehensive risk index 0.8438, sorting from 36 up to No. 35, ranked after the United Kingdom, the Philippines before. Among them, the political risk index from 42 up to No. 34, the economic risk index from 51 up to No. 46, policy risk index from 76 up to No. 73 for payment from the risk index rose to 23 No. 22. China's international status has risen. At the same time, China's economy more mature, more stable economic development (see Figure 8).
Figure 8 of China's economy become more mature and stable
1, China's economic expansion towards tightening three reasons
As Mao Zedong once pointed out, "external factors are changes in conditions, internal factors are changing the basis of external factors through the interaction of internal factors." In 2008 by Chinese economic expansion to economic austerity are the three basic causes of industrial and economic structures, error austerity policies, the world economic crisis.
Over the years, China has always adhered to a policy of industrialization, the industrial economic growth are the main source of investment and exports, when the reduction in investment or export disruption, the economic growth will decline, prices will decline. In 2007 the United States financial crisis has emerged, and began to spread to other countries in the world, the world economy has shifted from the economic expansion of economic contraction. In this case, China's macroeconomic made "overheated economic growth, inflation obvious" error to determine that "control of excessive growth, control inflation" policy objectives. Early in 2008, China implemented a restrictive monetary policy, through direct control of bank credit scale control of the flow of money supply, bank loans because of scale to reduce restrictions on lending, corporate cash flow because of insufficient production of operational difficulties, the decline in macroeconomic growth. When in 2008 the full advent of the world financial crisis, the shrinking global market, exports decline in overall product generally a surplus of the price level fell sharply, economic expansion towards tightening.
2, tight monetary policy led to economic growth slowing
2007 data show that China's economic growth and money supply (M1) growth has obvious synchronization (see Figure 9), monetary policy flexibility 0.62 (that is, money supply growth by 1 percentage point of economic growth to 0.62 percentage points). November 2008,
Figure 9 China's economic growth and monetary tightening synchronous decline
Money in circulation (M1) growth rate in January from 20.7% to 6.8%. 2008 January to November, China's money supply growth in 2007 fell 21 percent on average 14%, a decrease of 7 percentage points, China's economic growth declined 4 percentage points势在必然. December, China's money supply growth rate to 9.1 percent, but it was too late in the fourth quarter economic growth fell to 6.8 percent level. So as to reduce the size of loans as a primary means of monetary policy to make drastic nervous Chinese capital, operating difficulties.
At the interest rate policy, because China is a government-led economy, the banking capital flows more directly bound by the size of loans, the market of interest rate policy difficult to exert. People's Bank of China in November 2008 one-year lending rate from 5.58% to 5.31%, but the size of loans at interest rate policy constraints and shrinking market demand play a role in difficult circumstances.
3, sound financial policy-led growth, energy shortage
China's economy is government-led economy. 2008 based on macro-economic "overheating economic growth, inflation" basic judgments, China implemented a "robust", as the tightening of fiscal policy. 2008 January-November the growth rate of China's fiscal expenditure of about 23.6%, and in 2007 the growth rate of fiscal spending is basically the same. Taking into account the spring snowstorm and Sichuan earthquake and other natural disasters and the world financial crisis factors, with the same growth rate over the previous year's fiscal policy objective has been tightening up. Data show that China's economic growth mainly from investment, financial funds are one of the main source of investment in the global financial crisis continues to expand, the relatively tight fiscal policy not only reduces the compressed support economic growth, and also reduced the market demand for space, China's economy by tightening monetary and fiscal policies of the double attack. Although the Chinese in December 2008 an increase of financial investment scale, it was too late.
It is noteworthy that, because of the economic downturn, China's tax revenue growth also declined significantly. 2008 January to May, China's tax revenue growth rate of 33.8 percent, in 2008 January to November had declined to 20.5 percent, decline in tax revenue will lead to more Chinese in 2009's budget deficit, economic austerity and deficit financing of the double problems.
4, internal and external attack, "inflation" Photo / Bill
2007 China's consumer price index rose 4.8% in December consumer price index rose only 6.5 percent, far below the 13 percent annual economic growth levels, economic growth in the price of the "dividends" are still relatively high and that there is no People worried about the price rise is characterized by excessive "inflation." In fact, China has been a long-term inflation in the implementation of policy, money supply growth is higher than average economic growth of around 60%. At the same time, China has long been pursuing a policy of price control, including agricultural products, including the price level goes way beyond the real value of peasant farming is not a reasonable income, migrant workers to give up land. 2008 full-year consumer prices rose 5.9 percent, of which 14.3 percent rise in food prices, prices of agricultural products This is a market supply-demand relationship of logistic regression, is a positive, systematic process of rising agricultural prices rise, farmers do not carry out agricultural production.
图10 价格上涨随着经济下滑出现同步下降
2008年初，中国对宏观经济做出了“增长过热、通货膨胀”的错误判断，采取了一系列紧缩性宏观经济政策和控制农产品价格政策，结果是经济增长受到扼制迅速下滑，国内需求明显下降。与此同时，世界经济危机导致全球市场萎缩，中国出口下降，市场供大于求，生产普遍过剩，中国经济由经济增长、价格上涨为特征的“经济膨胀”转向增长下降、价格下降为特征的“经济紧缩”（见图10）。
5、工业主导产业政策在危机中强化
2008年由于市场萎缩、出口下降、经济下滑，中国工业经济增长速度落后于服务产业增长速度，经济结构似乎向服务经济方向转变。
事实证明，工业经济不但造成市场过剩、资源紧张、环境破坏，同时在世界经济出现衰退的时候也受到相当大的冲击，具有明显的外部依赖性。值得关注的是，2008年国家实施东部工业产业向西部转移战略，东部大量低效率、高污染产业转移到西部，低水平重复导致新的生产过剩，大量污染产业转移转移到西部使中国整体生态环境更加趋于恶化。
近年来，中国采取各种措施解决“三农”政策措施，但一直没有解决中国农业低效率问题，农民、农村问题自然无法解决。随着大量农民工就业困难，农民工就业又成为新的问题，“三农”问题演变为“四农”问题。事实表明，中国农业生产是有效率的，中国13004万公顷耕地面积仅占世界耕地总面积140232公顷的9.2%，却养活了世界20%的人口。但是，中国农业没有市场效率，农产品价格长期偏低，甚至使用冻结农产品价格政策限制农产品价格上涨，结果是农业增产农民不增收。与此同时，在世界农产品价格上涨的时候，中国采取限制农产品出口政策，农民无法从国际贸易中获得价格收益。简单地说，不提高农产品收购价格、开放出口市场，中国农业没有效率，“四农”问题难以解决。
目前，中国服务产业发展最大的问题是没有看到世界经济已经由工业经济转移到服务经济的历史趋势，没有把教育、医疗和社会保障纳入国民经济体系。1993年国家提出教育支出占GDP比重4%的承诺至今没有实现，中国政府主导的医疗改革因为缺乏效率难以持续，中国社会保障体系至今没有全面覆盖，存在巨大的资金缺口。
6、贸易政策重新转向出口补贴
2008年由于世界金融危机、国际市场需求萎缩，中国国际贸易出现明显下滑。全年进出口总额25616亿美元，比上年增长17.8%。其中，出口14285亿美元，增长17.2%；进口11331亿美元，增长18.5%。第四季度进口同比下降8.8%，出口同比仅增长4.3%，全年国际贸易增长速度与2007年相比下降10个百分点左右。在此情况下，中国重新采取提高出口退税率等鼓励出口措施，希望扩大出口。然而，在全球经济危机背景下，各国需求普遍减弱，全球市场普遍萎缩，中国鼓励出口政策没有市场响应，出口增长放慢。数据表明，在中国加工贸易占较大比重的情况下，2008年进口增长下降表明未来出口增长会进一步下降，2008年12月份数据也证明了这一点。
2008年中国汇率政策在回归购买力平价不断升值过程中出现转折，人民币汇率出现波动，甚至出现贬值趋向。人民币汇率贬值政策在理论上似乎有利于扩大出口，但事实上在全球经济危机、市场全面萎缩和中国劳动力成本、资源环境成本不断上升的情况下，人民币小幅度贬值不可能大幅度增加中国产品的出口竞争力，以此扩大出口的目标难以实现。
目前，中国巨额外汇储备既表明中国经济具有相当的竞争力和国际支付能力，同时也面临巨大的汇率波动风险和国内通货膨胀压力。2008年中国外汇储备总额达到19640亿美元，但教育支出仍没有实现占GDP4%历史承诺，农民平均收入还没有达到每天2美元的国际贫困线，医疗保障和社会保障体系没有根本落实。中国应当在经济发展、外汇储备较好的时候，利用外汇储备资金及时解决教育发展、医疗保障和社会保障问题。
7、 社会政策需要全面系统解决
2008年中国社会政策变得更加关注民生。然而，社会就业、教育发展、医疗保障、社会保障、矿难不断这些问题仍然未决，随着经济危机出现，中国数以千万的农民工失业问题凸显出来。目前，中国社会政策的症结是随机性、暂时性，没有系统性和长期性措施，没有把教育、医疗和社会保障作为产业发展，无法解决这些领域长期持续发展的问题。
8、 资源政策转变正是最佳时机
2008年中国经济增长放慢、生产下降、需求减弱、价格下降的同时，资源消耗也出现同步下降，石油、煤炭、电力等需求减少，价格下降，正是中国调整能源结构和能源政策的最佳时机。不可忽视的是，中国水资源仍十分紧张，全国水资源缺口在400亿立方米以上，水资源紧张状况仍在持续。
9、 环境政策约束长期软弱无力
2008年中国生态环境恶化的趋势没有改变，只是由于一些企业停产，污水烟尘排放有所减少而已。目前，中国的环境污染已经相当严重，长江、黄河两大水系已经全面污染，广州搞黑了珠江，深圳搞黑了深圳河，上海搞黑了黄埔江，天津搞黑了海河，东北的松花江等也全部污染。其中，长江流域从重庆、长沙、南京、合肥、上海一线布满的大型重化工产业已经威胁整个长江流域的生态安全，今日中国已经成为全盘接收发达国家污染产业转移的垃圾场，不但要承担巨大的资源消耗成本，同时还要承担巨大的生态环境风险。
十、2009年中国社会经济基本预测
经济结构、经济形态、经济环境是经济预测和经济决策的基础。2009年中国工业经济结构不会变，中国经济紧缩形态已经形成，世界经济环境恶化趋势显著。
1、2009年中国经济结构基本判断
随着2008年底大规模向工业产业投资，2009年中国工业经济结构会进一步强化，工业经济本质缺陷——资源紧张、环境恶化、市场过剩、周期波动、就业排斥、贫富差距等等问题还会进一步加剧，只是资源紧张、环境恶化矛盾由于生产下降可能趋缓。
2、2009年中国经济形态基本判断
目前，中国经济形态正在由经济增长、价格上涨为特征的“经济膨胀”转向增长下降、价格下降为特征的“经济紧缩”，市场不断萎缩，需求不断下降，生产过剩突出，企业经营困难，失业压力增大。
3、2009年中国经济发展基本环境
目前，世界金融危机已经演变为经济危机，已经从美国扩散蔓延到欧洲、亚洲，2009年将扩散和蔓延到整个世界经济，全球性经济紧缩态势使世界市场需求减弱，中国经济增长的外部环境更加寒冷.
美国经济下滑、石油价格下跌、利率水平下降是2009年世界经济三个关键风向标，作为世界经济火车头的美国经济下滑将世界经济增长速度放慢，世界石油价格水平下跌会使石油生产国经济受到重挫，世界各国会采取扩张性货币政策、财政政策对付经济危机，但世界经济短期内难以复苏，中国经济发展外部环境短期内难以改善。
鉴于目前世界经济已经由金融危机演变为影响实体经济的经济危机，2008年世界经济危机的滞后效应将使2009年世界经济下滑更深，经济前景更加暗淡。这次自上而下的经济风暴几乎摧毁了全球主要经济体的金融体系和生产体系，世界经济波动可能不是V型波动，而是U型波动，甚至可能是W波动，2009年世界经济复苏的可能性很小。事实表明，全球化的中国经济与世界经济具有同步性，面临内部“结构陷阱”和外部经济危机的双重夹击，2009年中国经济也将进一步下滑。如果世界经济下降到0.5%水平，中国实际经济增长可能下降到5%水平以下，市场会进一步萎缩，企业生产更加困难，社会失业继续增加，经济形势更加严峻。
4、2009年中国社会经济发展预测
鉴于2009年中国经济结构、经济形态和世界经济环境，《2008-2009年中国经济分析展望报告》（CEAOR2009）对2008年中国经济发展分析基础上，对2009年中国经济发展做出预测（见表1）。
表1 2008-2009年中国经济主要指标预测与实际值
Year
指标
2008年预测值
2008年实际值
2009年预测值
经济增长（%）
10
9
5
价格变化（%）
－
5.9
1
失业率（%）
4.2
4.2
6
国际贸易增长（%）
23
17
12
经济结构变化（%）
－
40
40
消费结构变化（%）
18
21.6
12
财政支出增长（%）
－
23.6
32
货币供应增长（%）
－
20.7
30
注释：结构变化以服务产业占GDP比重计算。－表示没有数据。财政支出增长为1-11月份数据。
（1）经济增长。2008年中国实际经济增长9%，与我们预测值相差1个百分点。2009年如果世界经济增长将进一步下降到0.5%水平，中国经济增长同步可能下降到5%左右。
（2）价格变化。2008年中国物价水平上涨5.9%，总体价格水平略高于2007年4.8%的水平，但在第四季度已经下降到2%以下。随着全球金融危机演变为经济危机，全球市场萎缩，物价普遍下降，中国物价水平也将同步下降。考虑2009年世界经济、中国经济增长普遍下滑，收入减少，需求减弱，2009年中国物价水平将进一步下降，全国居民消费物价总水平将维持在1%左右。
（3）就业变化。国家统计局发布2008年中国城镇登记失业率为4.2%，与我们预测数据一致。鉴于2009年中国经济增长继续下降，实际失业人数将继续增加，2009年中国城镇失业率总体呈上升趋势，按目前口径计算的城镇登记失业率将上升到6%左右，而实际失业率则远远高于这个水平。值得注意的是，中国超过1亿的农民工已经成为就业大军的重要组成部分，他们并没有纳入城镇失业率的统计范围。
（4）国际收支。2008年中国国际贸易增长速度为17.8%，比2007年23.5%的增长速度下降5.7个百分点。鉴于2009年世界经济和世界贸易增长速度继续减慢，中国国际贸易增长速度可能进一步减慢，增长速度将可能下降到12%左右。
（5）经济结构。2008年由于政策紧缩、出口下降、生产减少，工业增长速度放慢，服务产业增长超过经济增长，服务产业占GDP比重上升到40%，但这是暂时性的，随着2009年大量基础设施投资加大，中国经济可能重新返回工业经济增长轨道，经济结构基本保持不变，服务产业占GDP比重继续保持在40%左右。
（6）消费结构。2008年中国在经济下滑的情况下，全年社会消费品零售总额出人意料的增长21.6%，超过预测值3.6个百分点，也超过中国经济增长能够支撑的水平。考虑到2009年世界经济暗淡，中国经济下滑，市场需求萎缩，2009年中国全年社会商品零售额增长可能下降到12%的水平，消费市场进一步萎缩。
（7）财政政策。2009年中国宏观经济的首要政策是财政政策，在扩大投资促进增长的同时扩大消费需求，进而创造更多的经济增长。根据2007年中国财政支出增长与经济增长0.56的政策弹性，为了保证2009年中国经济达到8%的增长速度，中国财政支出增长应在32%以上，才能保证必要的财政政策支持力度。
（8）货币政策。2009年中国宏观经济的次要政策是货币政策，通过货币供应扩张支持财政政策在教育、医疗、社会保障领域发挥作用，同时通过市场机制支持企业在环保、基础设施和农业领域的扩张。为了保证2009年中国经济达到8%的增长速度，根据2007年中国货币增长（M1）与经济增长0.62的政策弹性，2009年中国货币（M1）供应增长速度应当提高到30%以上。
十一、2009年中国宏观经济政策目标
国家制定经济发展目标和政策必须同时符合“效率、和谐、持续”三原则。2009年国家提出“扩内需、保增长，调结构、上水平，抓改革、增活力，重民生、促和谐”的政策目标，第一次把经济增长与经济结构、市场结构、社会和谐结合起来，是一个明显的进步。
“工业经济”和“经济紧缩”是2009年中国经济的两大特征，工业经济是基本结构，经济紧缩是基本态势。分析表明，2009年中国宏观经济政策目标是“克服紧缩、优化结构、促进增长、增加就业”，发挥人口优势和市场优势，采用扩张性财政政策和货币政策，加速外生性工业经济向内生性服务经济的历史转变，实现确定性的结构增长，在克服经济紧缩的同时，积极增加社会就业，减少资源环境消耗，走上新的效率、和谐、持续发展的道路。
1、克服经济紧缩促进增长增加就业
2009年中国面临经济紧缩、失业猛增的局面，宏观经济政策的主要目标是“克服紧缩、优化结构、促进增长、增加就业”，加大政府主导的扩张性财政政策和货币政策力度，着力解决影响中国经济发展的资源紧张、环境污染和市场过剩等深层次的经济结构问题，同时解决经济紧缩造成的社会失业问题。
2、政府主导中国经济进入良性循环
“克服紧缩、优化结构、促进增长、增加就业”政策措施是一个系统工程。政府是目前中国经济的主要推动力，政府的财政政策和货币政策二者政策目标所有不同——扩张性财政政策的目标是通过政府机制优化经济结构，向有巨大市场需求的教育、医疗、社会保障领域投资，促进解决经济增长、增加就业的同时，解决久拖不决的教育、医疗、社会保障问题，基本路径是政府财政投资→服务产业发展→刺激经济增长→增加社会就业→居民收入增加→消费需求扩大→新的经济增长。货币政策的目标是通过市场机制解决环境保护、基础设施、农业发展问题，基本路径是货币供应增加→产业投资增加→刺激经济增长→增加社会就业→居民收入增加→消费需求扩大→新的经济增长（见图11），从而使国民经济进入良性循环。
图11 政府主导中国经济进入良性循环
3、“服务经济、结构增长”两把钥匙
尽管世界经济和中国经济错综复杂，但所有的经济问题都源于一个的基本逻辑——结构决定机制、机制决定行为、行为决定结果。事实表明，工业经济结构是目前中国社会经济问题的症结所在，要解决中国社会经济问题必须从改变目前中国经济结构入手。
图12 服务经济和结构增长是中国两把钥匙
目前，中国资源有限，技术创新不确定，工业经济增长方式难以持续，“服务经济、结构增长”是解决目前中国经济难题的两把钥匙。服务经济是内生性的经济结构，服务领域也是中国目前最为薄弱、需求最强的领域，通过扩大服务领域投资，在优化经济结构过程中扩大内需，解决资源紧张、生态环境、社会就业问题，在工业经济向服务经济转行的过程中实现确定性的经济增长（见图12）。
十二、2009年中国社会经济政策组合
在世界经济危机、经济紧缩的大背景下，2009年中国宏观经济政策的基本取向是实施自主性的结构政策，“政府主导、市场机制、优化结构、扩大内需、促进增长、增加就业”，进而使中国经济摆脱世界经济危机阴影，走上健康发展道路。
1、政府主导
目前，市场机制在世界经济和中国经济范围处于暂时失灵状态。一个国家的政府要承担和平稳定和经济发展的社会责任，在经济危机的情况下更是如此。中国经济是政府经济，政府既控制货币、财政政策权力，同时控制金融经济命脉和通信、交通、石油、钢铁等主要产业，在经济发展过程中发挥主导作用，政府机制通过经济规划、货币政策、财政政策和项目投资主导危机中的中国经济发展。因此，2009年中国宏观经济政策应当发挥政府主导的优势，通过积极的财政政策、货币政策优化结构、扩大内需、促进增长、增加就业。同时还会产生“杯水效应”——人们用于社会保障的投资满足后，剩余收入溢出将用于消费，从而扩大消费市场空间。
2、市场机制
政府不是经济主体，尽管可以制定宏观经济政策，但不能解决微观经济问题，政府机制应当通过市场机制发挥作用，政府的关键作用是权力推动、发展规划和政策导向。在产业领域，政府应当通过产业规划和信贷政策，促进产业优化升级，淘汰落后产业和落后企业，提高产业效率和企业效率，而不是一味财政补贴。在社会领域，政府应当通过发展规划和财政政策，健全完善长期投资不足的环境保护、教育、医疗和社会保障体系，并通过制度设计把这些领域变成具有造血功能的产业，自身利益不断积累发展.
3、优化结构
多少年来，中国经济结构调整是随机性、盲目性的，结构调整的结果是黑家电企业搞白家电，白家电企业搞黑家电，经济结构依旧。在资源有限、技术进步不确定的情况下，未来中国经济发展只能走结构增长的道路，通过结构创新和结构优化实现确定性的经济增长。
首先，优化经济结构。加大生产过剩、资源紧张、破坏环境的工业经济向人力资本充裕、需求空间广阔、市场供求对称、没有环境消耗的服务经济转变，在提高经济效率实现确定结构增长的同时，增加社会就业，同时解决经济增长、社会就业和资源环境问题。
其次，优化产业结构。目前，中国的产业在国际分工中多是资源环境消耗大、附加值低的产业，受到资源、市场、价格的多重制约，随着中国劳动成本、资源成本、环境成本和汇率升值，国际竞争力不断下降。未来中国产业结构优化——传统农业向高附加值的生态农业转变，传统工业向高附加值的智能工业和循环工业转变，传统服务产业向教育、医疗、金融、保险等知识产业转变。
第三，优化企业结构。目前，中国企业两极分化，大型国家垄断企业与众多小型企业并存，共同特点是缺乏国际竞争力。大型国有企业依靠垄断和补贴生存，小型企业依靠廉价生存。国家采取优惠贷款、出口退税、财政补贴政策支持，在一定程度上延长的落后企业的生存寿命，但这些企业效率低下、竞争力差、生存困难的问题并没有根本解决。因此，国家应当取消垄断，通过产业规划和政策引导，鼓励竞争，取消补贴，淘汰落后企业，鼓励企业向服务产业等高效率产业升级转移。
4、扩大内需
目前，中国一方面是工业产业过剩，而长期短缺的环保、教育、医疗、社会保障领域长期投资不足，整个东北几乎没有像样的污水处理厂，上大学还难、群众看病难、社会保障水平低。这些问题长期久拖不决的根本原因是政策失误和投资不足，结果是生态环境恶化导致生存环境严峻，教育不足导致中国人口过剩、人力资本不足，大量人口难以就业，贫富差距扩大，社会贫困问题长期得不到解决。大学教育不足使中国出现人口过剩、人力资本短缺的奇怪现象，医疗、社会保障不足使群众有后顾之忧，难以扩大消费。
“杯水效应”
人们知道，当我们向一个杯子倒水的时候，水是不会流出的，因为水还没有满。今天中国尚未建立全面的教育、医疗和社会保障体系，人们必然把收入首先用于这些领域，而当这些领域支出基本满足后，人们才会大胆消费。今天，当中国还远远没有解决教育、医疗和社会保障问题的时候要求人们大大消费是不客观的。因此，未来中国的货币政策和财政政策应当向教育、医疗和社会保障领域倾斜，把生产供给与市场需求结合起来，向需求空间巨大的教育、医疗、社会保障大量投资，在改善这些领域发展落后状况的同时，推动经济全面发展，形成“杯水效应”。
“教育资本效应”
——向教育领域投资10000亿元，全面发展大学教育，建立面向21世纪的全民高等教育体系，让所有愿意上大学的孩子上大学，把他们全部教育成能够创造附加价值的人力资本和纳税的人，为发展依靠人力资本的服务经济、知识经济创造条件，这些人口资源转化为人力资本后，其所创造的附加价值将远远超过一个没有上过大学的普通农民，形成“教育资本效应”。
“医疗资本效应”
——向医疗领域投资10000亿元，建立全面医疗保障体系，保障人民健康，保障人力资本持续增长，形成“健康资本效应”。
“社会资本效应”
——向社会保障领域投资10000亿元，在国家资金比较充裕的时候建立起全面的社会保障体系。毫无疑问，社会保障体系的发展本身可以形成新的社会保障产业，形成“社会资本效应”。
“环境资本效应”
——向环境保护领域投资10000亿元，在基本建立全国性环境保护体系的同时，国内一个年产值万亿元的环境保护产业随之建立，形成“环境资本效应”。环境保护产业是确定性、高效率产业，只要政府制定合理的价格，投资者必定取得收益——投资收益=成本+（1+10%），项目就可以持续运行。
“基础资本效应”
——向基础设施领域投资10000亿元，全面解决中国基础设施不全、设施老化问题，提高基础设施效率，“基础资本效应”。
“农业资本效应”
——向农业领域投资10000亿元，全面提高农民的技术水平和市场能力，全面提高农产品收购价格，提高农业效率和持续发展能力，形成“农业资本效应”。
5、促进增长
目前，国家采取的扩张性政策许多投资流向是没有市场需求的领域，投资扩张没有市场响应，政府投资多数变为GDP转换，而不是经济增长。如果投向长期短缺的环保、教育、医疗和社会保障产业，将生产供给和消费需求有机结合起来，将形成中国新一轮以服务经济为特征的持续增长浪潮，使中国在较短的时间内进入发达国家的行列。
6、增加就业
目前，中国的就业形势异常严峻，城镇失业人员和失业农民工合计已经超过5000万。随着中国经济增长放缓，企业经济困难，失业人数还会增加。尽管大量基础设施和工业建设投资会在一定程度增加社会就业，但这些投资只能将减少原来下岗的人，并不能增加多少新的就业。与此同时，工业经济以资本扩张和技术进步为特征的增长方式，就业弹性越来越小，往往是经济增长而就业没有同步增加。相反，服务经济以人力资本为主要增长来源，就业弹性大，就业与经济同步增长。当新的投资流向服务产业后，不但带来经济增长，同时也会增加就业，增加收入，扩大内需，刺激新的经济增长。因此，转向服务经济才是解决中国就业问题的治本之道。
十三、中国工业化进程历史终结与转折
工业经济是以劳动要素和资本要素构成以工厂化生产为特征的生产结构。历史表明,当工业经济与市场经济结合起来的时候，资本主义的生产方式就诞生了。由于采用机器生产方式，工业经济创造出巨大的生产力,生产效率大大提高。与此同时，工业生产速度远远高于市场消费的速度，经常出现生产过剩和周期性的经济危机，造成巨大的社会破坏，马克思提出用社会主义的计划经济取代资本主义，但是以降低效率为代价的社会主义计划经济重新转向社会主义市场经济的时候，工业经济弊病又都全部重新显现——资源紧张、环境破坏、就业排斥、贫富差距，等等。这些问题都客观地阻碍的社会经济发展，中国经济难以和谐、持续，面临新的转折。
1、 工业化是经济加速起飞助推器
中国社会经济发展是历史性的，今天是昨天的延续，明天则是今天的延续，其间贯穿社会经济发展的内在逻辑。历史表明，人类社会经济发展具有阶段性。10000年前，人类以农业经济替代自然经济，使人类社会从自然转向自为，不过人类发展过程更多地受到自然的制约。300年前，人类以工业经济替代农业经济，人类社会从自为转向自主，不过人类发展还受到资源和市场的制约。20世纪七十年代，世界经济由工业经济向服务经济转变，人类社会从自主转向自由，人类社会进入效率、和谐、持续的发展轨道。
历史表明，工业化是人类社会发展助推器。18世纪的英国凭借蒸汽机首开工业经济先河，并成为世界领先国家。此后，美国、德国等在19世纪借助工业化陆续成为工业发达国家。20世纪70年代，美国等先进国家率先进入以人力资本为特征的服务经济时代，服务经济的序幕在全球拉开。
历史同样证明，非洲至今没有进入工业化进程，他们至今是世界最不发达地区。拉美国家的工业化从19世纪末期与日本、加拿大、澳大利亚等国家几乎同时开始工业化，但至今没有完成工业化过程，没有形成现代化的工业体系，出口的主要产品是农产品，进口工业品，这些地区的国家几乎百分之百地都是落后的发展中国家。
2、 工业化在中国经济发展历史作用
新中国建立后，工业化进程同步开始，并在短短三十年时间里建立了比较全面的工业经济体系。美国人莫里斯·迈斯纳在《邓小平时代：1978-1994，对中国社会主义命运的考察》中评价指出，“毛泽东那个时代远非是现在普遍传闻中所谓的经济停滞时代，而是世界历史上最伟大的现代化时代之一，与德国、日本和俄国等几个现代工业舞台上主要后起之秀的工业化过程中最剧烈时期相比毫不逊色。在物质资源最贫乏的基础上，在充满敌意的国际环境中和极少外援情况下，中国在1/4世纪时间内把自己变成了一个主要工业大国。全国工业总产值增长了30多倍，其中重工业总产值增长了90倍。1952-1976年，中国工业产量以平均每年11.2%的速度增长。1966-1976年的文化大革命尽管造成了很大的破坏，但工业生产仍继续在以平均每年超过10%的速度增长。从1952年至1976年期间，钢铁产量从140万吨增长到了3180万吨，煤炭产量从6600万吨增长到了61700万吨，水泥产量从300万吨增长到了6500万吨，木材产量从1100万吨增长到了5100万吨，电力从70亿千瓦/小时增长到了2560亿千瓦/小时，原油产量从根本的空白变成了10400万吨，化肥产量从3.9万吨上升到了869.3万吨。到20世纪70年代中期，中国已经生产大量的喷气式飞机、重型拖拉机、铁路机车和现代远洋轮船。1964年中国第一枚原子弹试验成功，1967年生产了第一枚氢弹，1970年把一颗卫星发射进了轨道。与此同时，工业化极大地改变了中国劳动力以及社会结构的构成。尽管大多数的中国人民依然是紧紧依附于土地的农民，到20世纪70年代为止，城市工人的人数却已从1952年的300万上升到了1800万。此外，农村工业化运动把2800万农民（当时农村总劳动力约3亿人）变成了农村工厂的工人。在毛泽东时代，中国人由大部分人口是文盲的状况变成了大部分人识字。在农村差不多普及了小学教育，在城市几乎普及了中等教育，而且在城乡皆开创了成人教育和在职教育规划。基本的社会保护措施得到了贯彻，如禁止童工，还有农村最低限度的福利方案等，后者中最著名的是对最穷困者们的食品、物、住房、医疗以及丧葬费用的保证。国营企业的城市工人们享有工作保障以及国家拨款的福利待遇。拥有一个虽刚起步但相当全面的医疗保健体系，这使得它在所有发展中国家都独一无二。医疗保健以及营养和卫生的改善，共同造成了中国人寿命的极大增长，从1949年以前的平均35岁到了70年代中期的65岁。”这些成就包括经济增长、识字率提高和预期寿命提高，意味着人类发展指数的全面提升和社会均衡发展。从宏观经济层面，那一时期社会分配是相当公平的，人们普遍就业，没有通货膨胀，既无内债也无外债，真正实现了经济学的均衡。安格斯·麦迪森的《世界经济千年史》中长期数据显示，新中国建立后的1950-1973年期间，中国经济增长速度是美国经济增长速度的1.27倍，是世界经济增长速度的1.02倍，这些为此后中国进一步改革开放奠定了物质基础。不管怎样，这一时期中国经济发展足以使我们感到自豪。
1978年开始中国进入又一个三十年，改革开放使中国建立起全面的物质生产体系，由初级工业经济转变为高级工业经济，经济建设取得显著成就。与此同时，中国经济规模和经济总量不断扩大。1978年中国国内生产总值只有3645亿元，2008年中国国内生产总值猛增到300670亿元，三十年间增加了82倍。2007年中国每天创造的GDP为823亿元，现在只用4天半时间就可以完成1978年全年GDP。历史表明，工业化使中国经济实力不断增强，国际地位不断提高，中国在世界经济中的地位不断上升。如按人民币对美元购买力平价（PPP）转换系数1.8 水平计算，2008年中国经济总量GDP现价300670亿元人民币折合为79588亿美元，仅次于美国排在全球第2位。2005年中国钢铁、煤炭、水泥、化肥、棉布、电视机产量都占世界第一位，发电量全球第二，石油产量全球第五，工业GDP占总量GDP接近50%，是一个名副其实的工业经济国家。
3、 中国的工业化进程面临历史终结
新中国建立至今，中国的工业化进程经历了整整六十年。毫无疑问，工业化在促进中国经济发展方面发挥了巨大作用，但未来中国继续工业化必须同时具备四个充分必要条件。
第一，必须有充足的自然资源，特别是石油资源、矿产资源。实践表明，工业化过程中往往要消耗大量包括石油、矿产品等在内的资源，这些资源的储量正随着快速大规模开采而不断下降。根据世界能源组织估计，世界石油储量只能再开采四十年，其他资源也十分有限（见表2），而世界经济发展还要持续百年、千年，甚至更长时间，这种有限资源与无限发
展的不对称意味着人类必须放弃大量消耗不可再生资源的工业经济增长方式，转向以永续的以人力资本为基本要素的服务经济。目前，中国全部已探明的石油储量大约40亿吨，按照目前每年消耗3.7亿吨计算（每年消耗增长10%，七年翻一番），也只能支持十年左右时间，严重依赖石油的中国工业必须寻求新的出路。
第二，生态环境是工业化发展的制约条件。目前，中国越是发达，环境污染越来越重。《中国300个省市绿色GDP指数报告》（CGGDPI2008）数据显示，在全国273个城市中，工业废水排放最多的前10个城市分别是重庆、杭州、苏州、漳州、无锡、上海、南京、大连、成都和来宾（图13）。按照目前中国工业经济增长方式，未来中国的生态环境破坏日益严重，生态环境难以支撑中国的未来工业化。
图13 中国工业废水排放最多的10个城市
第三，市场约束是中国工业化的最大约束。目前，全球工业产品普遍过剩。除了石油等日益减少的商品外，绝大多数商品价格普遍下降。中国也不例外，2008年12月，中国零售商品价格指数下降到1.4%，工业品出厂价格再次出现1.1%负增长。这意味着中国市场已经出现过剩，继续投资过剩工业经济的结果是更多的生产过剩。
第四，经济增长过程中不断增加社会就业。目前，中国工业经济结构的本质特征是资本深化，其结果是经济增长中资本要素的作用越来越大，劳动要素的作用越来越小，经济增长就业不增长，反而下降。进入21世纪，中国经济平均增长速度10%左右，城镇失业率没有下降，反而上涨。面对中国不断增长的人口就业压力，工业化政策无法破解中国人口难题。
目前，中国经济增长已经远远超过其本身的经济潜力，更多是依靠增加投资和GDP转换来实现。实践表明，中国经济增长面临资源紧张、环境恶化、市场过剩、人口就业的多重约束，中国经济进入难以持续的困境，中国六十年的工业化历史进程面临终结。
4、 21世纪国家现代化标志是服务经济
今天，工业化已经不再是一个国家现代化的标志。目前，全世界工业占GDP比重占第一的国家只有十来个。历史表明，从20世纪60、70年代开始，美国等就已经开始从工业经济转向服务经济，所有发达国家工业占经济总量的比重都在下降，服务经济占GDP比重上升（见图14）。这是一个历史的逻辑——根据恩格尔定律，随着收入增加，食品占收入中的比重下降。我们由此推论，随着收入的增加，食品和工业品的消费比重都会下降，而国民收入是要全部支出的，必将全部用于服务消费，服务经济具有巨大的发展空间和市场潜力。不仅如此，以人力资本为基本要素的服务经济本身也具有和谐、持续的内在逻辑。历史表明，二百年前现代化标志是工业经济，21世纪现代化的标志是服务经济，这是一个历史的逻辑。
图14 世界经济结构变化长期趋势（%）
资料来源：世界银行《1987年世界发展报告》中文版，中国财政经济出版社1987年版，第6页。图中上部是农业，中间是服务业，下部是工业。
首先，农业的土地资本和工业的物质资本都是有限的，无法面对无限的经济发展。相反，人口资源是无限的，人口资源经过教育转化的人力资本也是无限的，无限的人力资本可以支持无限的经济发展。
第二，服务经济不消耗资源环境，发展服务经济使中国目前面临的资源紧张、环境恶化问题迎刃而解。
第三，服务经济“即时生产、即时消费”，没有生产过剩，自然也没有以生产过剩为特
征的经济危机和周期波动，发展服务经济使中国远离经济波动和经济周期。
第四，服务经济主要依赖人力资本，经济增长越快，增加就业越多，发展服务经济使中国的人口就业问题也是迎刃而解。
第五，服务经济的主要领域是教育、医疗和社会保障，发展服务经济使中国教育、医疗和社会保障问题迎刃而解。
第六，工业经济是外生性的，经常受到世界经济的影响，而服务经济是内生性的，发展服务经济使中国经济发展进入自主发展的新阶段。
中国有巨大的人口资源和人力资本，有巨大的服务消费市场，一旦进入服务经济发展轨道，发展服务经济使中国具有不可比拟的优势和潜力，中国经济将进入一个效率、和谐、持续发展的新阶段。
5、 服务经济不意味着不要工业生产
工业化不意味着中国每人都开一辆汽车，转向服务经济并不意味工业不再生产。未来的工业生产还将继续，只是占经济总量的比重会下降，经济发展的重心由工业经济转向了服务经济。
目前，中国城市居民客观上还缺少高楼大厦、家用汽车，广大农村不但缺乏家用汽车，还需要家用电器，这些都需要通过工业化来生产。然而，我们面临两个问题：第一，中国的资源支持中国百姓都有美国那样水平的高楼大厦、家用汽车、家用电器吗？不支持。第二，中国百姓有能力支持他们以市场方式取得这些东西吗？不支持。今天，中国高楼大厦、家用汽车、家用电器都已经普遍过剩，直接的证据是价格水平普遍下降。市场上不断上涨的资源价格、不断下降的工业品价格已经告诉我们——资源短缺、产品过剩，一个没有市场响应支持的过剩产业即使政府全力支持也难以重生。正因为如此，包括英国、美国在内的所有发达国家都是迫不得已转向了服务经济。
6、 中国应当立即跳出工业经济陷阱
目前，中国已经落入工业经济的结构陷阱——资源日益紧张、生态环境恶化、市场明显过剩、失业快速增长、人口矛盾突出、贫富差距扩大，工业经济在为中国创造巨大财富的同时，也成为中国社会经济发展的陷阱。
逻辑表明，工业经济有效率，但是没有和谐，不能持续。当中国经济转向服务经济后，资源日益紧张、生态环境恶化、市场明显过剩、失业快速增长、人口矛盾突出、贫富差距扩大问题迎刃而解，走上效率、和谐、持续发展的道路。因此，中国应当快速跳出工业经济陷阱，加速向服务经济转变。
事实表明，转向服务经济在中国是可能的，也是可行的。今天，北京已经率先转向了服务经济，服务产业占GDP比重达到73%。2008年北京奥运成功举办有了两个关键条件：资金和环境。北京搞工业经济可能有钱，但是没有环境。北京要有环境，可能因为减少工业生产而没钱。如今，北京搞了服务经济有了钱，也有了环境，就有了一个惊艳世界的北京奥运会，服务经济具有神奇的力量。
7、 上海、深圳要率先转向服务经济
上海是新中国的工业基地，深圳是改革开放后中国工业经济样板。当年，工业化把他们推向中国经济的高峰，而今他们都面临发展的资源、环境、市场、人口困境，传统技术、劳动成本优势已经丧失殆尽，经济增长速度放慢。
历史表明，工业化作为经济发展的助推器不会一劳永逸，当一个国家转向工业经济之后，由于资源、环境、成本、市场制约，工业化进程自然也要终结。上海、深圳等经济比较发达的城市和地区应当学会金蝉脱壳，率先转向服务经济。一方面，摆脱工业经济的资源、环境、市场束缚，实现内生性、确定性的结构增长。另一方面，腾出资源和空间为其他落后地区发展工业创造条件。
8、中国转向服务经济有十年缓冲期
历史表明，一个国家由旧的经济结构转向新的经济结构需要一个相当长的历史过程，中国由目前的工业经济转向服务经济至少需要30年时间。分析表明，中国还有不到10年时间的缓冲期——中国国内石油大体只能支撑10年，而水资源危机则可能随时发生。中国在资源紧张、环境恶化、市场过剩、失业巨增的情况下，仍在继续推行“过工业化”战略，将错过目前良好的转折机遇和外部环境，未来将面对更大的社会经济危机挑战。继续停留在工业经济时代，就会变成昔日英国的格拉斯哥和今日美国的底特律，中国东北、东部地区的经济发展事实证明了这一点。
9、第三次思想解放扬弃工业化理论
今天，中国背着工业化、城市化的历史包袱，无法克服资源、环境、就业、人口、经济矛盾，难以面对未来。过去一百年的历史证明，中国社会经济发展是一个不断扬弃旧的观念、旧的增长方式的过程。
1919年到1949年，中国扬弃了封建主义思想，提出“科学民主”的新思想，并开始了三十年新民主主义革命，建立了独立自主的新中国；1949年到1979年，中国扬弃了农业经济思想，提出了社会主义的新思想，建立了初步的工业经济体系；1979年到2009年，中国扬弃了计划经济思想，提出了“改革开放”的新思想，建成了高级工业经济体系，并走向世界。2009年是新的三十年的开始，我们要完成中国现代化的历史使命，这个现代化不是二百年前以工业经济为特征的现代化，而是21世纪服务经济为特征现代化。唯有如此，中国社会才能走上效率、和谐、持续的发展轨道，才符合理论逻辑和实践逻辑。
十四、结束语
2008年中国经济艰难曲折，2009年中国经济面临挑战，走出工业经济泥潭、转向服务经济、实现结构增长是2009年中国摆脱经济紧缩的唯一正确选择。
分析表明，服务经济是未来中国经济发展的基本方向，结构增长是未来中国经济增长的基本方式。目前，中国资源短缺、技术进步困难、人口相对过剩，倚靠传统的要素投入和技术创新方式实现经济持续增长相当困难。因此，在资源要素不变、技术进步困难的情况下，结构增长成为中国经济增长的唯一有效方式，传统农业向生态农业转变，传统工业向智能工业和生物产业转变，传统服务产业向知识产业转变，总体经济结构向服务经济转变。在这个历史转变的过程中，解决资源环境问题，解决社会就业问题，解决贫富差距问题，解决教育、医疗和社会保障问题，使中国经济全面转向效率、和谐、持续的发展轨道。
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