人民币国际化成为趋势

今年“两会”，人民币国际化不仅仅是热点话题，而且还被提上官方日程。全国政协委员、原国家税务总局副局长许善达认为，人民币国际化能帮助中国增加财富。央行行长周小川则强调：“将全面推进人民币贸易结算。”周小川由于手头握有2万亿美元的外汇储备，掌控着对美6819亿美元的国债，已经成为最具影响力的全球首席央行“行长”。11日的《朝鲜日报》称其为全球金融“大腕”，美国《华尔街日报》对周小川言论的评价是：“人民币在国际金融市场上的影响力将进一步提升。”
当今世界，世界性的货币呈现出“一强两极”的局面———美元独步天下，欧元来自集团合力，日元紧随其后。但在金融危机情势下，美元在全球的影响力和公信力大大降低；而欧洲有发生第二波金融危机的风险，欧元地位也在降低；依靠美元和对美关系密切的日本经济衰退已成定局，日元的地位也不容乐观。唯有中国，是支撑奥巴马“新政”的财政后援，又和日本有着同地缘同模式的经济亲缘关系。中国对欧采购团的反贸易保护主义又成为欧洲在金融危机时代的“救命稻草”。世界四大经济体，唯有中国依傍强大的纵深国内市场能在国家贸易的棋盘上连横合纵，游刃有余。可以说，人民币已经具备了成为国际货币的一切必备条件：经济实力、在国际贸易、投资和国际金融中的影响力。
故而，周小川并非浪得虚言，而是中国经济实力发展到一定阶段的必然结果。而且，人民币国际化的好处是显而易见的，首先，利用美、欧、日这三大世界货币走入低谷的情势下，扩大人民币在国际贸易中结算的范畴，改变中国“贸易大国、货币效果”的尴尬；其次，降低当前海量外汇储备的风险，适当减少外汇储备的规模，规避捆绑美元所致的损失；再者，提振中国在国际货币金融体系中的地位和发言权。更重要的是，是能够以发行纸币的方式换取人民币持有者的资源，增加铸币税收入。总之，人民币国际化的一小步，就是现有国际金融体系变革的一大步。
当前，人民币国际化的清晰路线图已经呈现，即采取从区域化到全球化，分阶段实施的方式。在北面，中国去年10月与俄罗斯签署了货币互换协议，并且中国和俄罗斯有近2000亿元的20年石油采购计划。这个金钱换石油的过程，也是让北方的中国强邻逐步接受人民币的过程。在东方，号称发达国家的韩国在金融危机的逼迫下于去年12月和中国签署了货币互换协议，金额高达1800亿元人民币。在东盟，人民币在民间已经成为硬通货，在官方层面和越南、缅甸和马来西亚都有货币互换协议。由于东盟是中国的重要贸易伙伴，一直视中国为区域贸易重要引擎，在美欧日等贸易伙伴喑哑熄火时，选择人民币作为结算货币将是自然而然的结果。所以，人民币在本区域凝聚影响力，如果成为区域内的结算货币，成为世界结算货币只是时间问题。
制约人民币国际化的症结不在外而是内因问题。因为人民币尚未实现自由兑换，金融系统还不完善，对接全球化的信心还不足。尤其是在华尔街金融风暴的肆虐下，中国式谨小慎微的金融监管恰恰使中国金融系统躲过了塌方的一劫。在此情势下，加强金融监管，避免大撒把式的金融过度开放成为国际社会的主旋。在此情景下，人民币如何国际化，成为考验中国的一个难题。周小川不愧是曾在2005年“国际货币会议”上挑战格林斯潘的“人民币先生”，在“两会”笃定宣称人民币国际化的路线图，就意味着中国要开创人民币成为世界货币的大格局。就在3月11日，央行宣布和白俄罗斯国家银行建立200亿元人民币/8万亿白俄罗斯卢布的双边货币互换协议。这是中国将人民币参与国际贸易结算从周边区域拓展到欧洲地区。
人民币国际化的战略路线图已经启动，在策略跟进上还需解决人民币资本账户开放、汇率制度的弹性化改革、强化人民币国际化后的有效监管等。选择香港作为人民币离岸中心，通过香港这样的贸易自由港的过滤和缓冲，尽可能降低人民币国际化的风险，都应纳入金融决策者的视野。有一点必须保证，不能为了人民币国际化而国际化，否则就会一放就乱、一放就死。
有人循例以为，美元替代英镑成为国际货币用了半个世纪，人民币趁金融危机契机成长为继美、日、欧后的“金融第四岛”（“欧元之父”蒙代尔语）也非一蹴而就。问题在于，中国在人民币国际化问题上并没有急躁冒进，而是分阶段逐步实施。关键是美日欧等世界主要经济体能否顺应时势，接受人民币成为新的世界货币。The "two sessions", the RMB internationalization is not just a hot topic, but also put on the official agenda. CPPCC member, former deputy director of the State Administration of Taxation许善达believe that the internationalization of the RMB would help China's increasing wealth. Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan stressed that: "to comprehensively promote the yuan trade settlement." Zhou Xiaochuan, hold-on-hand because of two trillion U.S. dollars of foreign exchange reserves, the United States control of the 681.9 billion U.S. dollars of treasury bonds, has become the most influential global chief The central bank "governor." On the 11th of the "Korean Daily News" called the global financial "Big Shot", the United States, "The Wall Street Journal," Zhou Xiaochuan, the remarks of the evaluation are: "the renminbi in international financial markets will further enhance the influence."
In today's world, a world currency a "one strong polarization" situation --- the world is the only U.S. dollars, the euro from the group together, the yen followed. However, in financial crisis situations, the U.S. dollar in the global influence and credibility greatly reduced; has happened in Europe the risk of the second wave of financial crisis, the euro was also lower status; to rely on the dollar and the United States close to the Japanese economic recession is a foregone conclusion , the yen's status also is not optimistic. Only China, are supporting Obama "New Deal" financial support, and Japan also have the same model with the geo-economic relationship. Chinese purchasing delegation to Europe's anti-trade protectionism has become the financial crisis in Europe at the time "life-saving straw." The world's four major economies, only to fall back on a strong depth of Chinese domestic market can trade at National Lien Heng Hop on board the longitudinal and easily. It can be said that the RMB has already become an international currency has all the necessary conditions: economic strength, international trade, investment and international financial influence.
Therefore, Zhou Xiaochuan, and waves were not a bubble, but China's economic strength has developed to a certain stage of the inevitable result. Moreover, the benefits of the internationalization of RMB is obvious, first of all, the use of the United States, Europe, the three day into a valley of the world's monetary situation, the expansion of renminbi in international trade settlement areas, to change China's "trading power, the currency effect" embarrassment; Secondly, the reduction in the current risk of massive foreign exchange reserves, foreign exchange reserves to reduce the scale appropriate to circumvent due to the loss of dollars tied up; Moreover, the boost China's international monetary and financial systems of the position and the right to speak. More importantly, are able to issue currency notes in exchange for yuan manner the holder of resources to increase the seigniorage income. In short, the RMB internationalization of a small step, that is, the existing international financial system, a big change.
At present, the RMB internationalization clear road map has been presented, that is taken from regionalization to globalization, the phased implementation approach. At the north, China in October last year and Russia signed a currency swap agreement, and China and Russia has nearly 2,000 billion in 20 years of oil procurement plans. The process of the oil-for-money, but also allow the north and gradually accept the Chinese yuan强邻process. In the East, so-called developed countries the financial crisis in Korea under the force in December last year and China signed a currency swap agreement, the amount of up to 180 billion yuan. In the ASEAN, the renminbi has become a hard currency in the civil, at official level and Viet Nam, Myanmar and Malaysia have a currency swap agreement. Because ASEAN is China's important trading partner, has always regarded China as an important engine of regional trade in the United States and Europe, such as day trading partner dumb dumb flame, the selection of RMB as a settlement currency will be a natural result. Therefore, the RMB in the regional pool influence to become the region if the settlement currency, the monetary settlement to become the world just a matter of time.
Constraints Renminbi internationalization not excluded but the crux of the issue is precluded. Since the RMB has yet to achieve the free convertibility of the financial system is not perfect, butt less than the confidence of globalization. Especially in the raging financial storm on Wall Street, the Chinese-style timid precisely so that the financial supervision of China's financial system survived unscathed landslides. In this situation, strengthening financial supervision, to avoid excessive financial大撒把-style open international community of the main rotation. In this scenario, how the internationalization of the renminbi, the Chinese become a problem. Zhou Xiaochuan, who is worthy to be called 2005 "the International Monetary Conference" challenge on Alan Greenspan's "Mr. Renminbi," at the "two sessions" certain that the yuan international road map, it means that China should open up the renminbi become a world major currencies pattern. On March 11, the central bank announced that the National Bank of Belarus set up and 20 billion yuan / 8 trillion Belarusian rubles bilateral currency swap agreement. This is the Chinese yuan to participate in international trade settlement from the surrounding region into the European region.
RMB internationalization strategy road map has been launched, at a follow-up on the strategy needed to solve the RMB capital account open, flexible exchange rate system reform, strengthening of the yuan after the effective international supervision. Select Hong Kong as an offshore center for the renminbi by Hong Kong's trade free port filtering and buffering, as far as possible to reduce the risk of RMB internationalization must be incorporated into the financial decision-makers perspective. It must be assured that should not in order to RMB internationalization internationalized, otherwise you will put one on the chaos, one put on the die.
It was a matter of course that the U.S. dollar as an international currency substitution pounds spent half a century, the renminbi financial crisis an opportunity to take advantage of growth following the United States, Japan, Europe after the "Financial Fourth Island" ( "Father of the Euro" Robert Mundell's words) is also non - overnight. The problem is that Chinese RMB at the international problem of impatience, there is no radical, but a phased implementation. The key is United States and Japan, the world's major economies can adapt to the times and accept the renminbi has become a new world currency.